Tinubu’s Quiet Run to 2027: How division, time, disorganisation are weakening opposition

2026-03-07 - 08:37

By Luminous Jannamike, Abuja On Thursday afternoon in Lugbe, Abuja, 38-year-old mechanic Musa Sadiq slid out from beneath a Toyota Camry, wiped grease from his hands with a rag and listened as a radio commentator discussed Nigeria’s 2027 presidential election, a race many voters already suspect may not be much of a race at all. Read Also: ‘These’re distractions, we’re matching to Aso Rock’ – Amaechi reacts to attacks on house, ADC’s office Musa chuckled. “Election? These politicians haven’t even agreed among themselves yet,” he said, shaking his head as he reached for a spanner. Around him, generators hummed and vehicles crawled past the dusty roadside workshop. Politics, like the afternoon heat, hung in the air. But what seemed stronger than excitement about the election was a growing sense of inevitability about how it might end. “If they are serious, they should show us one person to support. Right now everybody wants to be president,” he added, tightening a bolt on the engine block. Across Nigeria, a quiet question is beginning to surface: if the opposition cannot unite soon, will the 2027 presidential election become a contest in name only? That quiet scepticism, heard in mechanic sheds, markets and bus parks across the country, reflects a political reality slowly taking shape. Long before campaign posters appear on street corners, the opposition may already be running short of time. And the clock is not on its side. A race already tilting Barely 11 months before Nigeria’s next presidential election, President Bola Tinubu and the ruling All Progressives Congress appear to hold a commanding structural advantage. That advantage goes beyond incumbency. Following a wave of defections between 2025 and early 2026, the ruling party now controls roughly 30 of Nigeria’s 36 state governorships. The once-dominant Peoples Democratic Party has steadily lost ground, while the Labour Party continues to wrestle with internal leadership disputes. In Nigerian politics, governors are more than administrators. They control party structures, funding pipelines and grassroots networks that stretch across the country’s 774 local government areas. For many Nigerians watching this political drama unfold, the bigger question is no longer who will win. The real question is whether the opposition can organise itself quickly enough to make the election competitive at all. Even in places where public enthusiasm for the president may be modest, the 30 governors of the All Progressives Congress and their political machinery can still mobilise between 25 and 40 percent of the vote in their states through local networks, loyal party members and campaign resources. As one recently defected governor privately remarked, the ruling party is consolidating its numbers while the opposition is still trying to organise itself. That difference alone creates a formidable head start. The Coalition that Promised a Fight Last year, opposition leaders tried to change that dynamic. In July 2025, several prominent politicians rallied around the African Democratic Congress as a coalition platform aimed at preventing what they described as the risk of one-party dominance. The alliance brought together figures who had once been fierce rivals: former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Labour Party’s 2023 presidential candidate Peter Obi, former Rivers State governor Rotimi Amaechi, former Senate President David Mark, and former Osun State governor Rauf Aregbesola. At the time, the announcement generated cautious optimism among opposition supporters who hoped a united front could mount a serious challenge to the ruling party. But months later, unity remains fragile. Several leading figures within the coalition harbour presidential ambitions of their own. Informal factions, often described as the Atiku bloc, Obi bloc and Amaechi bloc, have quietly emerged. Debates over zoning between northern and southern politicians continue to simmer beneath the surface. As a result, the coalition is still struggling to answer its most basic political question: who will carry its presidential ticket. When Time Becomes the Opponent Even if those disagreements were resolved today, time itself has become a powerful adversary. Nigeria’s electoral timetable, overseen by the Independent National Electoral Commission, places party primaries and candidate nominations within tight windows expected around April and May 2026. For long-established parties with deep national structures, those deadlines are manageable. For a newly assembled coalition still building membership registers, fundraising channels and grassroots organisation, they are daunting. Running a national campaign requires far more than announcing a candidate. It demands polling agents across thousands of voting units, ward-level coordinators and consistent messaging across Nigeria’s vast political landscape. Those systems usually take years to build. The coalition has months. Even Opposition Leaders Acknowledge the Problem Some opposition leaders themselves have openly acknowledged the challenge. Former Rivers State governor Rotimi Amaechi recently offered a blunt assessment at a joint press conference on the state of the nation in Abuja. “Actually, Tinubu is not our problem. The opposition is the problem of the opposition,” he said. At the same gathering, Peter Obi emphasised the need for unity. “We have the same view, but it is important that we repeat it as often as we can so that Nigerians know we are together. There is a need for a genuine opposition party. Those who are not here today, we are pleading that we all come together to save our dear country,” he said. Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar framed the issue in broader democratic terms. “What you must bear in mind is that the collapse of democracy in Nigeria is going to lead to the collapse of democracy in Africa because we are the largest democracy in Africa,” Atiku said. Veteran political figure Alhaji Buba Galadima argued that protecting democracy should not be left only to political elites. “I don’t think this should be left only to politicians. It is the duty of everybody in Nigeria, everybody, to protect this democracy,” he said.. The speeches were forceful. But speeches alone do not build political structures. Strains Beneath the Surface Signs of strain within the opposition occasionally spill into public view. In January 2026, Abba Atiku, son of Atiku Abubakar, defected to the ruling party in Adamawa and publicly declared support for Tinubu’s re-election. Elsewhere, tensions have surfaced within local party networks. Reports recently emerged of suspected thugs attacking a ward office linked to Amaechi’s political base in Ubima, ward in Rivers State. Meanwhile, recent local elections in Abuja exposed coordination problems within the coalition, with some leaders blaming internal disagreements for poor performance. For many Nigerians, such episodes reinforce doubts about whether the alliance can transform itself into a cohesive national campaign machine. What Nigerians Are Saying Public reactions reflect those concerns. Ibrahim Tunde, an educationist, believes the coalition must first resolve its internal disputes. “You better address the internal crisis within your coalition party, ADC. You think APC has the time to waste on you all losers. You’re never a threat to the ruling party. You’re just an opposition with little to no wing to challenge the victory awaiting President Tinubu in 2027,” he said. Businessman Maduka Ezigbo pointed to the coalition’s performance during local political campaigns. “How can you be a coalition but you guys are divided among yourselves which was obvious during the AMAC campaign? Peter Obi did almost everything. Atiku happens to be in the picture because it was a political strategy for him including Amaechi. ADC chairman, David Mark was no where to be found that includes his secretary,” he said. Even within the coalition’s ranks, some members worry that internal rivalries could sabotage the party’s ambitions. Chigozie Alex, an ADC member, warned that ambition and strategy must be carefully balanced. “You all are the true enemies of yourselves for choosing delusions over realities and emotions over strategies. Until you all come down from your high horses let’s build the ADC the right democratic way... we should just get ready for another divided opposition in 2027 making it easy for Bola Tinubu,” he said. A Race Drifting Toward Its Conclusion Back in Lugbe, Musa Sadiq finished tightening the engine bolts and switched off the small radio hanging beside his workbench. The arguments about politics continued somewhere in the distance on television panels, at party meetings and in strategy rooms across the country. But here in the workshop, the conclusion felt simpler. “Let them first agree among themselves. Then we will know if there is really an election,” he said with a shrug. For now, like many Nigerians watching from the sidelines, he is waiting to see whether the race for 2027 will actually become a race at all. Because until the opposition decides who carries its baton, the ruling party may simply keep running, with no one close enough behind to force a contest. Vanguard News