Nigeria needs 10% annual growth to reach $1 trillion economy – Finance Minister

2026-02-09 - 16:49

By Progress Godfrey ABUJA — Nigeria must achieve a minimum annual growth rate of 10 percent over the next decade to realise its goal of becoming a $1 trillion economy, the Minister of State for Finance, Dr. Doris Uzoka-Anite, said on Monday. Speaking at the National Economic Council (NEC) conference in Abuja on February 9–10, Dr. Uzoka-Anite noted that while the economy is stabilising with a 4 percent growth recovery in 2025, achieving a trillion-dollar economy requires a more aggressive expansion. She explained that while 6–7 percent growth is sufficient to reduce poverty, reaching $1 trillion demands sustained double-digit growth driven by private investment and structural reforms. The Minister highlighted the Federal Government’s shift from being the primary spender to becoming a strategic enabler under the Domestic Growth Acceleration Strategy (DGAS), integrated into the 2026–2030 National Development Plan. She said the strategy introduces “Investment Budgeting” to de-risk projects and attract private capital at three to five times the public spending. Dr. Uzoka-Anite said: “Our role must evolve decisively from being the primary spender to being an enabler of investments that de-risk and unlock private capital. The government alone cannot finance the transformation we seek. Strategic public de-risking can unlock private investment at a multiplier of 3 to 5 times the public allocation in key infrastructure. For accelerated development at the desired scale, we need a deliberate framework—Investment Budgeting—that mobilises private capital, builds productive assets, and generates long-term economic returns.” On the 2026 fiscal outlook, the Minister projected revenues of ₦34 trillion, with the tax-to-GDP ratio expected to rise toward 18 percent following the full implementation of the Nigeria Tax Act 2025 and harmonisation of taxes across all states. She said the Central Bank of Nigeria aims to reduce inflation below 13 percent by the end of 2026, supported by ongoing bank recapitalisation, a trade surplus, and foreign reserves above $40 billion. “The mathematics is clear,” Dr. Uzoka-Anite said. “At current government allocation rates, Nigeria would need more than 111 years to mobilise the $300 billion infrastructure investment required. Investment Budgeting that leverages private capital is essential. A capital pool of $100 billion, assuming a marginal propensity to consume of 0.64–0.75, could generate $278–$400 billion in economic output.” She cautioned, however, that risks such as oil price volatility, food supply disruptions, and climate shocks remain, urging disciplined execution and strengthened federal-state collaboration to ensure macroeconomic stability translates into improved living standards for Nigerians.