Mixed reactions as NBS report shows decline in food prices

2026-03-03 - 19:58

By Progress Godfrey ABUJA — Food prices declined across key staples in January 2026, according to the latest Selected Food Price Watch released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Tuesday, triggering mixed reactions among consumers, farmers and processors. Data from the statistics office showed that the average price of locally produced rice fell 10.94 percent year-on-year to ₦1,841.83 per kilogram, while brown beans plunged 48.65 percent to ₦1,262.43. Onion and tomatoes also recorded annual declines of 17.87 percent and 5.25 percent, respectively, pointing to easing pressures in selected food categories. However, crayfish rose sharply by 39.07 per cent, underscoring persistent volatility in protein prices. The report also highlighted sharp state and regional disparities, with southern zones generally posting higher prices than parts of the North, reflecting structural inefficiencies in logistics and distribution. The easing in selected food prices follows a series of federal interventions aimed at expanding supply and moderating inflationary pressures. In the second half of 2025, the Federal Government approved temporary food import measures, including duty waivers on selected staples, while also reopening key land borders to improve inflows. Also, exchange rate stability has improved following the Central Bank of Nigeria’s monetary reforms, helping reduce imported input costs and pricing uncertainty for traders. Industry Stakeholders React Chief Executive Officer and Co-Founder of DeBranch, Sandra Victor Gwafan, said the price moderation was a double-edged sword that created a divergence between consumer relief and producer distress. She noted that while households are benefitting from lower retail prices, farmers and processors face margin compression due to elevated input costs incurred during the previous production cycle. She said: “For some people, they would say it’s a way forward, and for some people, they would say it’s not really a good thing. So who are those people? Consumers are currently happy, but farmers are not. “The consumers are actually excited that the food prices have crashed, and they are able to buy at least a bag of rice that will last them a year. So if you compare the prices of last year and this year, you will see that, of course, the whole lot of consumers would be happy, because a lot of consumers last year bought a bag of rice for close to N120,000. But now, they are buying parboiled rice for as low as N50,000. “And then, for me as a processor, we supported our farmers with incubators, fertilisers, because we do backward integration with the farmers, the cost of fertilisers as of last year was very high. And then these farmers trusted us to collect the fertiliser, and they went ahead to produce rice. And then the agreement was that we would offtake from them after harvest. “All of a sudden, the prices we are now saying we are buying this rice from are very low, compared to how much we gave them, how much input we gave them. So, farmers are forced to stop selling altogether. They say, why would I sell to you when I spent so much to buy fertilisers to plant this rice? Let’s say, for instance, a farmer spent 120,000 Naira to produce one bag of rice, and he’s now selling his rice for 30,000 Naira.” She warned that sustained price compression could discourage planting in the 2026 cycle, especially as producers face funding gaps and uncertainty. She advised the government to do more in supporting farmer input, as that offers a more sustainable food security structure. Team Lead at Jet FarmsNG, Jerry Tobi Olanrewaju, attributed the January decline largely to macroeconomic factors rather than structural supply gains. He argued that post-festive demand contraction, weak purchasing power, and recent import flows contributed to price moderation. “So, basically, you know that everything happens based on economics — the macroeconomics. The macroeconomic backdrop is that people have been buying a lot; there was a surge in mass purchasing in December. So, there was a low demand for food in January because people had stocked up in December,” he explained. He added that policy support must become more proactive, particularly in financing, input access and strategic storage. Programmes Manager at African Food Changemakers (AFC), Kachi Nwachukwu, linked the easing trend to a mix of fiscal measures, currency stabilisation and supply expansion. She noted that border reopening and improved exchange rate stability have improved pricing clarity for traders and reduced speculative behaviour across value chains. “Food inflation coming down is a combination of many factors. The first one I can really point to is fiscal policies. You know the Federal government recently opened the borders, which brought in goods. “You can also see that the Naira is strengthening somewhat. Naira is beginning to appreciate. So, with that stability and businesses able to stand, a trader can actually accurately sell their goods because the market is stable. It is not the same as it was in 2023, when the exchange rate was very volatile. Broadly, these are the main drivers,” she said. She maintained that farmers are not necessarily the primary casualties of price volatility, arguing that speculative gains are often captured by storage and distribution players, while most farmers focus on selling quickly to recover costs and sustain production, given that demand for staple produce remains consistent. “Sometimes, the farmers are not the ones who benefit from profiteering. Sometimes it is the other players in the value chain. People who play in the storage buy when there is excess supply in the market, and they store and sell when demand is high. “A typical Farmer, when they have a lot of goods, wants to sell them and make back their money. So I know that farmers might not necessarily be on the losing side, because there would always be demand for their goods. “The price at which they sell, I cannot depict that, but a lot of times, they are not disadvantaged because there is a market for their goods, and what the farmer actually wants is to be able to take their produce to the market and be able to find buyers and go back and continue to produce,” she added. Analysts said the trajectory of food prices in the first half of 2026 will depend on sustained policy coordination, input affordability and farmer confidence heading into the next planting season. Vanguard News