Dreadful year: Comamon man’s fears for 2026

2026-03-02 - 14:08

By Dickson Omobola Dark, tall and handsome, Emmanuel Smart, probably in his 30s, wore protective gear. He had just turned off the ignition of his power bike somewhere in Ikeja, Lagos State, when Sunday Vanguard caught up with him to assess the country’s social, political and economic situation in 2025 and share his expectations for the next 10 months in 2026. Pausing briefly to gather his thoughts, the staff member of Skyway Aviation Handling Company told Sunday Vanguard that insecurity, unemployment and underemployment were the three musketeers that drove hardship in 2025, hoping that the remaining 10 months would be better. He lamented that the “country was under severe strain. Poverty levels rose and the middle class shrank as persistent inflation eroded purchasing power. Insecurity disrupted livelihoods, education, agriculture and food supply chains.” However, Smart said two months into 2026, the economic environment appeared to be becoming more complex due to new tax policies, which took effect on January 1, 2026. He forecast that barely 59 days into the new year, “house rents are expected to rise as property owners seek to transfer tax costs to tenants and food prices may increase again. On security, government strategy must move from reactive responses to proactive, intelligence-led operations against bandits and insurgent groups, while stronger collaboration among southern governors will be essential to prevent the possible southward spread of insecurity and protect national stability.” Smart’s expectations for the next months are personal, but many across the country also held the same view about 2025, and looked forward to a prosperous. Across Nigeria, residents who spoke to Sunday Vanguard described 2025 as a difficult year, saying killings were rife and hunger, occasioned by harsh government policies, constantly tormented them. Benue. In Makurdi, the Benue State capital, Mr Johnson Odey, who spoke to Sunday Vanguard, said: “2025 was difficult for Nigerians, although later in the year, food prices began to drop. Killings across the country were also a major challenge that affected everyone in 2025. We recall what happened in Yelewata and other parts of Benue State, and Nigeria in general. “In 2026, we want to see an end to killings and insecurity. We also hope to see a continuous drop in food prices so that the common man can live better. As for the tax laws, I do not understand the provisions. We expect government to put a stop to its implementation.” Like him, Alice Ada told Sunday Vanguard that in 2025, “we lost many lives and properties to insecurity. The cost of living was unbearable, but we witnessed some relief towards the end of the year. We expect this relief to be sustained in 2026. “However, our major concern is the new tax laws, which have just taken effect despite calls for their suspension. Personally, I do not fully understand its provisions, but given the loopholes identified by various groups and organisations, it should be suspended.” A student, Julie Asa, stated: “The year 2025 was very difficult for me. We only managed to survive in view of the high cost of living and insecurity. However, this year we hope there will be improvement, especially with the intervention of the United States government, which launched attacks on terrorists in the country.” Kano For Dr Abdussalam Kani, who lives in Kano, much was accomplished in 2025 compared to 2024, but government was still deficient in certain vital areas. Kani said: “When you look at 2025, I can say that much was accomplished. If you look at our Gross Domestic Product, GDP, or our economy generally, 2025 is a bit better compared to 2024. I remember that in 2024, our GDP in the third quarter was at 3.86 per cent. But when you look at the third quarter of 2025, our economy grew by 3.98 per cent, implying a moderate change in our GDP, which is an indication that the economy is recovering.” On the new tax regime, he said: “Personally, I do not have a reservation on the content of the laws. I am convinced beyond any iota of doubt that what has been passed by the National Assembly is the actual law to be implemented in Nigeria. The laws are aimed at protecting compliant taxpayers in Nigeria. Equally, the laws are aimed at expanding the tax base and blocking all leakages, as reforms aimed at modernising and bringing digital transformation into our tax system. “The major challenge that is causing panic in Nigeria is misinformation and what we call trust deficit. Government and the revenue-generating agencies in Nigeria failed woefully in public education. But if we carefully analyse the content of each of the provisions, we will discover a lot of simplification. Our major concern now is the issue of transparency and accountability. Our leaders can no longer be trusted in Nigeria. That is why Nigerians are heavily condemning the laws, and that is why you will notice a lot of panic.” Unlike him, Mustapha Hodi argued that 2025 was not different from previous years. Hodi said: “At the beginning of the year, the economic condition in the country was hard on Nigerians as a result of economic reforms implemented by the Bola Tinubu administration. Until June, when the headline inflation figures began to decline, it also translated to the crash of prices of food commodities and other food items. For security, there was no difference. “My expectation in 2026 is not different from 2025. This is because, despite the decline in the inflation index and the crash of prices of food items, the tax laws currently in effect may trigger economic hardship and a high cost of living. In terms of security, although the insecurity menace is taking a long time to be combated, my expectation is more breakthroughs in security.” For Jacob Ajakaiye, he is optimistic that the coming months in 2026 will be economically better. That optimism, he told Sunday Vanguard, is borne out of the expectation that most of the macroeconomic policies of government would have started maturing and producing results. Taraba In Taraba, residents expressed hope, while others foresaw despair in 2026, especially with the new tax regime. Speaking to Sunday Vanguard, Chief Ben Adaji said: “We are in 2026, and it is pregnant; it is an electioneering year. We don’t know whether it will give birth to a baby boy or a baby girl. However, with the new tax law, I foresee more difficult times for Nigerians in the coming months. Since we are heading for elections, I expected the President to make life more bearable for Nigerians.” To Nahum Sule, he said: “I see the tax reform as necessary but sensitive. It can improve government revenue and public services if implemented transparently and fairly. However, without proper public enlightenment and visible accountability, it risks placing an additional burden on ordinary people rather than driving real economic growth.” Another resident, Hannah Akanta, noted: “As a civil servant working in Nigeria, 2025 was a mixed bag from high inflation, a hike in prices of goods and corruption, to the high rate of insecurity across the country. “As we continue our journey in 2026, I look forward to improved security nationwide, economic stability and social welfare. I also expect that our leaders prioritise governance and accountability and are more transparent in steering the affairs of the country. I do not have ample details about what the new tax laws entail, but from the little I have gathered, I learnt it will improve our economy and boost revenue. As a Nigerian, I remain hopeful regardless of the challenges we face as a nation.” Plateau Nde Isaac Wadak, who lives in Jos, the Plateau State capital, said: “My expectations for 2026 hinge on meaningful progress and stability. I hope for improved economic conditions through better policies, reduced inflation and job creation. Additionally, more inclusive governance where leaders engage communities directly and implement people-focused initiatives enhances security, especially in regions affected by conflict or criminal activities, and strengthens social services, including education, healthcare and youth empowerment. “The newly introduced tax regime aims to increase government revenue while reducing dependence on borrowing. It focuses on widening the tax base, improving compliance and ensuring that more sectors contribute fairly to national development, including broadening the tax net to bring more individuals and businesses, especially in the informal sector, into the tax system.” Meanwhile, Ejiogu Ezinne said: “2025 was a challenging year that tested my patience, resilience and faith. The year revealed the fragility of stability and showed that growth often comes through discomfort. “The new tax regime represents a shift in responsibility and structure. What I understand is that low-income earners are meant to be protected, small businesses are largely exempted, and compliance and proper documentation now matter more than before.” Milton Daniel stated that information about the new tax regime was still lacking, even though it is in effect. According to him, “It is not even properly talked about in the mainstream media. A common man on the street doesn’t understand it, and this leads people to hold back their money and might not want to use the banks again.” Kebbi In Kebbi, Hajia Surraya Muhammed from Birnin Kebbi said her fears about the new tax regime had been doused after listening to explanations by experts. According to her, the explanation clearly pointed out that the poor are less affected, while the rich will bear the brunt of the new tax regime. She said: “If what we hear about the new tax regime is true, let us allow some time to see how things will play out.” For her part, Hadiza Muhammed Kola, President of the National Council of Women Societies, said: “Let’s give government some time to see how far they can go and how reliable their explanations are. We may be wrong to conclude that the new tax regime will aggravate poverty among the poor in the country.” Kwara Mosunmola Ayobami, who is in Kwara State, said: “The level of awareness and understanding about the tax laws is very low. The federal government should have mandated the National Orientation Agency and the Ministry of Information to undertake the task of effective enlightenment of the public, particularly in different dialects. The timing is also wrong. This should have been done in the second term of this administration, not now, when families are merely struggling to survive. “The introduction of the new tax law has come at a time Nigerians are looking for relief, and that was why it was received with mixed feelings. The law is seen as another burden on the average Nigerian who is struggling to feed or meet the basic necessities of life. “The explanation from certain quarters that the idea of the tax reform was to widen the dragnet to cover those who have not been paying their tax when due, and also exempt certain categories of people and businesses from paying tax to enable them grow, has not been able to clear the doubts in the minds of Nigerians.” Adamawa An iron bender in Yola, the Adamawa State capital, Mr Luka Ambrose, lamented that while most Nigerians were trying to cope with the removal of the fuel subsidy, an unfavourable new tax regime had come into effect to add to the country’s problems. Another respondent, Mallam Mukailla Hagam, said he was contemplating closing down his business due to low patronage, yet government introduced a new tax policy that might further worsen the plight of small-scale businesses. A hawker, James Urih, said: “The present administration wants to bury ordinary Nigerians alive before their death due to obnoxious and unfavourable policies. What is left for the poor man in Nigeria again? There seems to be no hope as far as this government is concerned.” Across the South-South geopolitical zone, residents described 2025 as a tough and difficult year for most families because of the high cost of living and insecurity across the country. They, however, expressed optimism that 2026 would be better, while appealing for government to enlighten the populace on the new tax regime. Sharing his thoughts with Sunday Vanguard, Mr Fred Nowho said: “The year 2025 was a tough year by every standard, only second to 2024. “The year exposed the harsh realities of politicking rather than societal governance, which was the expectation of most Nigerians. The first two or three quarters of the year saw a high cost of commodities, including petrol, affecting the purchasing power of ordinary Nigerians, thereby causing many people to fall below the poverty line. “My expectation in 2026 is to see stronger purchasing power among Nigerians and the continued lowering of petrol prices. Ultimately, these will affect inflationary trends and the well-being of Nigerians. A lot of those who fell below the poverty line in the last two years can resurface. “From my understanding of the new tax regime, I think it is nothing entirely new, except that this regime replaces a multiplicity of tax laws that existed in the country before now. This, for me, makes it a lot easier for reference purposes.” For Richard Benin, “Widening the tax base is a technical term for placing a new burden on millions already struggling to survive, as the analysis logically proves that such individuals would indeed be pulled into the tax net. This leads to a fundamental question: what will be done with this money? Our long history with other revenue streams, oil earnings, loans and recovered loot, shows a consistent failure to translate public funds into better roads, schools or hospitals.” Meanwhile, Gabriel Osekene asserted: “2025 in general had its unique perspectives. Some people celebrated, while some were weighed down by poverty, but in general, it was intense hardship. “My expectation in 2026 is that the economy should boom to overcome this great hardship. Good policies should be implemented to alleviate the suffering of people. The tax regime is a good reform, but it is being implemented at the wrong time. The hunger issue should be solved, and people should be well fed before the tax regime is implemented.” Another resident, Oghenekaro Awodeha, said: “2025 was an intriguing year marked by intense political manoeuvring, where integrity was often sacrificed on the altar of selfish interests, while Nigerians endured severe economic hardship, so much so that survival itself felt like an achievement. Looking ahead to 2026, the political landscape is likely to be dominated by unexpected developments, with many carefully laid calculations failing. “On the newly introduced tax reforms, they appear to be another policy burden imposed at a time when citizens are yet to recover from the effects of fuel subsidy removal. Regardless of how they are explained or defended, the reality is that such taxes will ultimately be transferred to the common man through higher production costs, especially in the absence of effective price control mechanisms, making the new tax regime a wrong move at the wrong time.” A legal practitioner, Eric Omare, noted that 2025 was overshadowed by insecurity. According to him, “a lot of innocent Nigerians lost their lives, with an adverse impact on socio-economic activities. It also affected Nigeria’s international rating. Hence, in 2026, I expect government to fight insecurity with all the sense of responsibility and seriousness that it deserves. “However, I have doubts about whether government is really committed to fighting insecurity. Overall, the performance of the Tinubu administration will be mainly judged on how it manages the issue of insecurity in Nigeria and the economy.” Austin Osas, an artisan, noted: “2025 was a really tough year as commodities were very expensive. People could not afford some essential commodities due to their high costs. Insecurity was one of the major challenges last year. For this year, if government can tackle just insecurity, I think 2026 will be a better year. For the new tax law, it is not clear for jobless people whether they would still be taxed on their financial transactions. However, if they will use these new taxes for the betterment of the people, there is no problem with that.” Solomon Okharedia, a vendor, said: “My experience last year was not what I expected; things were very rough. I used to be able to buy certain basic things easily, but last year it was tough. For this year, I expect that things will be better for me and for everybody. Government should make things easy for the common man.” Also speaking, John Oshomah said: “There were many reported cases of kidnapping along the troubled Auchi-Igarra-Ibillo road. But thank God it is getting attention now. The cost of foodstuffs was also very high. Even when there were reports of a reduction in the cost of foodstuffs, it still did not get to many people.” Linus Owhondah urged government to tackle insecurity in 2026, saying: “In 2025, we must say that there were lapses, and the most critical aspect is that government failed to address insecurity properly. We are all living witnesses to what happened in different states, especially those in the northern part of the country, where kidnapping and other social vices sailed unhindered. In 2026, we want the federal government to tackle insecurity head-on.” A lawyer, Ikechi Osimini Beke, said: “I am of the view that Nigeria is not yet ripe to indulge in this aspect of the tax regime right now because we are a third-world country. You are trying to bring in a tax regime meant for a first-world country. I don’t think it is in tandem with our current realities. “We have not evolved to that level. The level of theft of public funds is not in tandem with the infrastructure we have in the country. We keep collecting, and we are not seeing it being put back into the system. I don’t think this tax regime is a welcome development for us right now.” Also, a farmer, Festus Ukoeyen, said: “2025, from inception, was rough in terms of security and especially feeding, which gulps about 70 per cent of a man’s resources. If people do not feed well, they cannot work well. How do you explain buying a cup of beans for N600? Families with many children suffered a lot in 2025. “My expectation for 2026 is for citizens to support government so that it will help in correcting some anomalies.” For Dr Victor David, a rights activist, he said: “For me, I would like to thank the state and federal governments for the defence of human rights in 2025. In Akwa Ibom, for instance, we have not had any record of human rights abuse. In 2026, I want to see people fulfilling their campaign promises. I want to see both the federal and state governments implementing their budgets to enable the country to have better education, well-equipped hospitals and a good power supply.” Sharing insights, Goodluck Ibem, a resident in the South-East, stated that the new year presents an opportunity for renewed focus on security, infrastructure, youth empowerment, industrialisation and political inclusion. Ibem said: “We call on all tiers of government to make the South East a priority in national planning and execution of policies. We also acknowledge the commencement of the new tax regime by the federal government. While taxation is a necessary tool for revenue generation and national development, we urge government to ensure that this tax structure is not burdensome on the already overstretched masses. It must be progressive, fair and transparent. We call for fiscal responsibility, transparency and accountability in the use of tax revenues.” Others For Nnanna Nwafor, tax laws are essential for funding public services and developmental programmes, but when implemented without sufficient transparency, public engagement or sensitivity to socio-economic realities, they can become highly controversial and potentially harmful to human rights, especially for the most vulnerable. Nwafor said: “The goal, according to government statements, is to modernise and simplify the tax system, harmonise tax laws across federal, state and local levels, broaden the revenue base, improve compliance and support national development. Government has stressed that the reforms are designed not principally to raise taxes but to streamline the system and make it fairer. Some components—such as exemptions for many workers and small businesses—are meant to reduce tax burdens.” To the Executive Director, Centre for Human Rights Advocacy and Wholesome Society, CEHRAWS, Okoye Peter, Nigerians are not asking for miracles in 2026, but fairness, restraint and accountability. Peter said: “If government listens, consults and governs with empathy, 2026 can be a year of rebuilding trust. If not, social tension will deepen. The choice is entirely institutional. The new tax regime, as it currently stands, raises serious red flags. Taxation is lawful only when it is fair, proportionate and people-centred. You cannot tax an exhausted population into prosperity. Without broad consultation, social safeguards and transparency, the tax law risks becoming punitive rather than productive, and that undermines both constitutional values and public trust.”