Any tears for PDP? By Hakeem Baba-Ahmed

2026-03-17 - 00:06

“A person who sells eggs should not start a fight in the market”.- African proverb There is talk that the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP’s, Bauchi State Governor, Senator Bala Mohammed, is defecting to the All Progressives Congress, APC. If he does, he will leave only Oyo State Governor, Seyi Makinde standing as PDP governor. It will not be safe to bet on how long Governor Makinde will resist leaving the party himself nor where he is likely to head when he does. Like many of his former colleagues he will more likely be persuaded by the adage, “there is safety in numbers”. If ( or when ) he does defect to the APC, Governor Mohammed will see a lot of old comrades and familiar faces. Their numbers keep going up, and it is safe to assume that at least half of all current elected members of the APC in the country are decampees from PDP. With 32 State Governors and counting, the APC has become a new phenomenon in Nigerian political history: it enjoys near-total membership of all elected officials at all three levels of a federal system. Scholars of democratic systems may scratch heads to find words for this phenomenon, since single party democracy may challenge established conceptual schools. President Bola Tinubu will also have a special place in Nigerian history for being the leader with the best record in building his political base almost entirely from loyalty to his person and the carcass of the opposition. Perhaps what you just read may not be entirely correct regarding the state of the PDP. There are large numbers of loyal PDP supporters and a cluster of loyal, distinguished politicians and former office holders who insist the party is not done yet. Of this group, the most intriguing segment is made up of perfectly knowledgeable and experienced gladiators who are convinced that the judicial process will somehow restore to them the remains of the PDP, into which they will breath a new life within two or three months and make a major dent on the APC warship. This is the segment that has faith in the independence of the judiciary, particularly as it relates to political party matters. They will follow the appeal process to the Supreme court. If they win, they will have a skeleton to show for it. If they lose, they will rue time lost while hoping that miracles happen. Then they will look to see how many days they have left to register in other parties. There will still be Wike’s PDP gift to Tinubu, of course, although this faction too might benefit from useful thinking that the PDP is best trashed beyond use, in the event that some former PDP people who lose out in the inevitable scramble for tickets in the APC are tempted to reverse to it for symbolic purposes. The other cluster plays the role of bridge builders, hoping that by some miracle the party can reconcile, heal and resume battle either alone or in an alliance with other parties. This cluster has some heavy weights with registered vulnerability to ambush by anti-corruption agencies and the judiciary. They will be relatively safe in the APC but absolutely valueless in a party that will see them as refugees arriving very late. The end of the PDP will bring a large number of distinguished careers and a structure built by sound vision but infected with an incurable virus of the all- powerful leader to an ignoble end. This was the party created by the necessity of the withdrawal of the military from the political space in the late 1990s; by a largely Northern political elite which combined an intelligent reading of a nation needing a new lease of life and strong organic links with politics and society; and substantial national elite consensus, strong enough to defeat parochial interests. Obasanjo ticked many boxes: Northern endorsement, a military background, a strong character and sound intellect and an ambition easy to tickle. His control was threatened at the end of his first term. He survived it and subsequently raised his levels of control while revealing more of his character. In his first four years, he successfully turned around the entire South-West from hostile to friendly territory. Except one State: Tinubu’s Lagos which stood against him in painful, but ultimately rewarding defiance. Neither Obasanjo nor Tinubu would forget those eight years. Tinubu because he survived owing to a strong personal will and constantly scheming to be one step ahead. Obasanjo because he met an equal, if not in political scheming, then in strength of personal will. A widely rumoured attempt to engineer a third term failed, so Obasanjo re-created himself through the successful ‘Yar’Adua/Jonathan ticket, using the massive spread and depth of the PDP. Yar’Adua’s and Jonathan’s six years showed the vulnerability of the PDP: a weak leader can damage a strong party. Complacency and corruption dug deep because the party had replaced governance with greed. Insecurity spread as the quality of leadership declined and vital state institutions weakened. An opposition which asked to be trusted to fight killers and stop systemic plunder by an elite which had captured the Nigerian state for itself had been gaining momentum under General Buhari. If PDP had noticed, it did not see it as a threat. On a number of occasions, the Nigerian citizen rose to demand a clean and accountable leadership. He was ignored. Then Buhari’s persona and multitudes collaborated with Tinubu’s instincts to defeat a PDP administration, with a hefty hand from PDP renegades. When the history of the PDP is written, it should say clearly that PDP betrayal by many of its members was a substantial contribution to the success of Buhari’s APC. Some of those crying loudest against treachery in the PDP today will be in the front row when the honours list of betrayal is called. Those who take pride in life-long loyalty to the PDP inspire little admiration, such is the scale of damage which their colleagues triggered. It is impossible to conclude even a short history of the PDP without acknowledging one of its most damaging legacies: defection with popular mandates intact. It destroyed a key element of the democratic system: power belongs to the people. Today, both APC and the leading opposition party, the ADC are PDP in substance and philosophy. PDP turned defection into an art. It could have made betrayal of the electorate (which is basically what defection is),illegal. It did not. The wheels turned full circle. A final point: APC and ADC could learn a lesson from PDP: politicians alone do not guarantee popular support. People who cannot be loyal to parties that give them trust and mandates will not be loyal to the citizen.