…..And so it was done, by Hakeem Baba-Ahmed

2026-02-24 - 00:46

“A cat that dreams of being a lion must lose its appetite for rats”.-– African proverb President Bola Tinubu signed the amended Electoral Act 2026 a few hours after it was passed amidst controversy over process, deafening noise and drama rarely seen in and around the National Assembly. As we speak, this is the legal framework that will guide the entire conduct of the 2027 elections. The APC and its bulging weight of political office holders will count the outcome of the intense struggle to affect key changes in the Act as a victory. In particular, its victory over the opposition regarding mandatory, real-time transmission of results has revealed the rationale behind its desperate poaching drive for governors and legislators. In the end, it was its sheer numbers of legislators who rammed through the administration’s preference despite intense resistance of the opposition, civil society organisations and loud noises from groups who insisted on major changes in the electoral law and its faithful implementation, if the 2027 elections will have any credibility at all. So now we know what the deal is. Voters are entirely dependent on two voting systems, and the choices between the two are not theirs to make. INEC leaders and officials will decide whether to use real-time transmission of results, or use the more traditional, manual system. We have been told the first option is vulnerable to our chronic deficiencies regarding our power and telecommunication assets, such that it cannot be relied upon as the sole voting and transmission mode. APC says the manual system is cumbersome, fraught with many familiar loopholes perfectly designed for subverting the people’s will between polling units and the final tally, and is best suited for a country like ours. INEC has an elaborate infrastructure for real time transmission, but it cannot compel the Federal Government to upgrade the entire infrastructure to work for 24 hours, even if it wants to. Like all of Nigeria, INEC now has to tolerate the worst rather than improve it. This is the decision of our leaders. We saw our federal legislators in full colour, split between a majority that will do any bidding of the executive branch, and a small minority opposition who will now have to critically evaluate the prospects of the next few months surviving only on allowances while they go through agonising choices in the form of defecting to gain some weight, or staying put and starving all the way to electoral defeat. No one should bet good money over a lot more defections in the coming months. The dramatic turn-around of the leadership of the House of Representatives reveals the awesome powers of persuasion which the executive possesses. In both chambers, grumblings had assumed a worrying pitch over unpaid bills from constituency projects, non-release of funds to Ministries, Departments and Agencies and severe restrictions on traditional sources of boosting incomes in the course of representing constituencies and oversight activities. It is not inconceivable that these irritants were smoothed over to create the type of reversal and outrage the nation witnessed as our Representatives revisited their earlier positions on voting and collation systems. Now that we know how the will of Nigerian voters will be processed and revealed in 2027, it will be useful to understand the context that will shape the competition for our votes, and our places in the system. First, how would voter perception and disposition be affected by the quarrels over voting systems and their outcomes? It is not unlikely that not a few bottles were popped in APC living rooms following the victory over the dual systems provision. APC has not fought so hard for this provision for nothing. If its fortunes and prospects in 2027 had depended on a different outcome, it will most certainly have worked against it. Politicians do not have level playing fields to give away to the opposition. So, the Nigerian voter is starting the journey with a major handicap. Poor perception over credibility of election outcomes create many effects. One is apathy. We are already scraping the bottom of the barrel in terms of turnouts. The recent FCT Area Council elections suggest disturbing levels of apathy. A few more elections before 2027 are very likely to reveal even more worrying levels of apathy. People will not bother to go and vote when the competition has so many advantages, including the electoral system. Voter apathy is not a threat to winners. It threatens the very foundations of the democratic system. It denies democracy of its foundations: a people who believe they can choose leaders and hold them accountable. Second, the opposition has a major say in terms of public perception and participation in political activities and elections. This is where APC’s opposition has to dig deep and restrain itself from further degrading the image and quality of the electoral process. For now, this is the only process available to it. It cannot mount any further resistance against it within the governance process between now and the elections. The more it knocks the electoral process, the more it suggests to its supporters that the table is stacked too high against it, and it is futile putting up a fight. Its challenge is to mobilise enough support to reduce the damage of potential abuse, and encourage its supporters to raise levels of vigilance against subversion. If leadership of the opposition believe and act as if the APC can be defeated, it will make the competition a lot more credible and victory more certain. INEC should be encouraged to manage a porous system in a manner that will produce a credible election result. No system is fail-safe, but even poor systems can be made to produce credible outcomes. This particular INEC needs to be sensitive to its place in our history. The current crop of leaders and politicians have created the widespread perception that the 2027 elections will determine whether our democratic traditions will survive and heal, or collapse under the weight of ambitions and contempt for the future of our country. Who wins the elections will be a lot less important than the evidence that they won fairly. Finally, this administration must resist the temptation to manipulate a system it refused to improve. With its haul of the vast majority of elected people, APC has no reason to attempt to rig the 2027 elections. Its thinkers should know that most defectors to it were motivated only by the certainty of being re-elected or being on the winning side. If they have to rig the elections to secure offices, they need to factor-in a potential resistance from Nigerians which will severely test our resilience as a democratic country.