2027: Is PDP collapsing because Wike is ‘holding it down’ for Tinubu or due to internal crisis?

2026-03-14 - 02:26

Luminous Jannamike, Abuja A few metres from the busy junction near the Peoples Democratic Party national secretariat in Wuse Zone 5, Musa Sani runs a small kiosk squeezed between a POS operator’s stall and a modest business centre where residents come to print documents and photocopy forms. Behind his seat is a carton filled with unused campaign posters from the February 21 Federal Capital Territory council elections. As he opens it, the familiar umbrellas of the Peoples Democratic Party; red, white and green spill out, bright but untouched. For years, he was the kind of grassroots loyalist every party relies on: the man who shares flyers, argues politics on street corners, and helps mobilise crowds whenever rallies are held. This time, most of the posters never left his kiosk. “We printed plenty. But the excitement was not there like before,” he said, lifting one from the carton. A Crisis That Had Been Building By the time the Court of Appeal delivered its ruling in Abuja last Monday, the internal crisis inside the Peoples Democratic Party had already been simmering for months. The court upheld an earlier Federal High Court judgment that nullified the controversial November 2025 national convention in Ibadan which produced Kabiru Tanimu Turaki as national chairman. According to the appellate court, the convention breached several provisions of the party’s constitution, the 1999 Constitution and the Electoral Act 2022. The judges said the required 21-day notice to the electoral commission was not properly issued. They also found that notices were sent without the endorsement of the national secretary. In addition, properly conducted state congresses were absent in at least 14 states, meaning legitimate delegates were never produced. Legally, the ruling focused on procedural violations. Politically, however, it strengthened the authority of the leadership structure headed by national caretaker working committee chairman Abdulrahman Mohammed, a structure widely seen as operating with the backing of the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike. For many observers, the judgment did more than resolve a legal dispute. It reinforced an existing balance of power within a party already struggling with deep internal divisions. Makinde’s Remark That Now Looks Prophetic The developments have also revived a striking claim previously made by Oyo State governor Seyi Makinde. Makinde had disclosed that during a meeting he attended with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Wike made an unexpected remark. According to Makinde, Wike said he intended to “hold the PDP down” ahead of the 2027 elections, when Tinubu will seek re-election. Makinde said the comment came unsolicited and caught him by surprise. At the time, some party members brushed it aside as political rhetoric. But as leadership disputes deepened, defections from the PDP to the President’s All Progressives Congress increased, and court battles multiplied, the remark began to sound less like casual talk and more like a description of a political strategy already unfolding. The Question That Refuses to Go Away Within the Peoples Democratic Party, one question has quietly lingered throughout the crisis. Is the party collapsing under the weight of its own internal divisions, or is it being deliberately held down by the political influence of one of its most powerful figures? That question has become harder to ignore as the influence of Nyesom Wike continues to shape developments within the party, even after he joined the cabinet of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. For some insiders, the events now look less like isolated disputes and more like a political reality the party has yet to fully confront. Reconciliation And a Warning from the Turaki Camp As calls for reconciliation grow within the party, officials aligned with Kabiru Tanimu Turaki say they are open to the idea, but only if the party’s independence as an opposition platform seeking to wrest power from Tinubu in 2027 is preserved. The push for reconciliation gathered momentum after Wednesday’s advice from the Court of Appeal of Nigeria, Ibadan Division, which urged feuding stakeholders to explore settlement in view of the tightened electoral timetable released by the Independent National Electoral Commission ahead of the 2027 general elections. In an exclusive interview, Ini Ememobong, spokesman for the Turaki-aligned faction of the National Working Committee of the Peoples Democratic Party, said the group supports reconciliation but warned that the party must not lose its role as a credible opposition. “The Peoples Democratic Party, as an opposition party, must offer vibrant opposition and must not become an appendage of the ruling All Progressives Congress. In deference to the advice of the Court of Appeal, Ibadan Division, and the communiqué issued after the meeting of the party’s Board of Trustees urging all sides to pursue reconciliation, we are bound to respect both advisories. However, we have made it clear; and we maintain, that any reconciliation must be based on principles and aimed at strengthening the party, not weakening it,” he added. The remarks highlight the difficult balance facing the party: resolving internal disputes without weakening its position as a credible alternative to the ruling All Progressives Congress. Wike’s Own Call for Unity Even the man critics accuse of tightening his grip on the party has publicly called for reconciliation. Reacting after the appellate ruling in Abuja, Nyesom Wike described the judgment as a victory for the rule of law and urged members of the Peoples Democratic Party to use the moment to rebuild unity rather than continue the crisis through prolonged legal battles. “We have fought enough. It is time to drop personal interests and see how we can move the party forward,” Wike said, urging members to see the ruling as an opportunity to rebuild the organisation. Yet his remarks have also carried a clear signal that his faction believes it now holds a stronger negotiating position within the party. Speaking during a meeting of stakeholders aligned with his camp, Wike declared that his side would approach any reconciliation from a position of advantage. “We have the upper hand and we will tell you this is what we want,” he said. While reiterating support for dialogue, the former Rivers State governor insisted that reconciliation must reflect the new balance of power inside the party. “We are for reconciliation, but genuine reconciliation,” he added. At another point, Wike suggested that those seeking peace within the party must recognise what he described as the outcome of the internal struggle. “Nobody fights a war, wins and begs. You have won, and the people concerned should come and talk to you,” he told his faction. The remarks highlight the difficult balance now facing the party: pursuing reconciliation while rival factions continue to disagree over who holds the real political leverage inside the organisation. Yet within the party, that appeal for unity is unfolding alongside deep suspicion among rival factions, a reminder that reconciliation in the PDP may be easier to call for than to achieve. When the Calendar Becomes the Real Opponent The faction that emerged from the Ibadan convention has indicated it will challenge the judgment at the Supreme Court. But the judicial process could take months, and politics rarely pauses for court proceedings. Primaries must be organised. Candidates must emerge. Alliances must be negotiated. Even if the Supreme Court eventually overturns the ruling, analysts say the time needed to rebuild the party before the 2027 election may already be slipping away. Former People’s Democratic Party deputy governorship candidate Reuben Abati offered a blunt interpretation. “I think it is a triumph for Nyesom Wike,” he said. Abati suggested that Wike appears to have taken on what could be interpreted either as a political assignment or a personal strategic mission, ensuring that the PDP no longer poses a serious threat to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. “The party can go to the Supreme Court. But they cannot determine when the court will decide. While they are waiting, the political timetable continues to run,” he said. In politics, defeat does not always arrive through elections. Sometimes it arrives through the calendar. A Party Losing Ground The Peoples Democratic Party national structure has already weakened considerably. Today the party controls only two governorships; Oyo and Bauchi, both held by second-term governors who will leave office after the next presidential election. Without a broader network of sitting governors, the party’s ability to mobilise resources and coordinate political machinery has declined significantly. Political analyst Don Pedro Obaseki offered a more cautious interpretation of the ruling. In his essay “PDP at the Crossroads: The Appeal Court Has Reset the Game,” he argued that the judgment does not install new leadership but simply nullifies a flawed convention and returns responsibility to the party’s existing organs to organise a credible reset. But even that possibility faces the same challenge. Time. Umar Sani: An Insider Says the Legal Fight Is Not Over Former presidential spokesman and party insider Umar Sani believes the interpretation of the ruling as a sweeping political victory may be premature. “The dispute over the party’s leadership is far from settled,” he said. According to him, the judgment addresses specific legal questions but does not resolve the deeper leadership conflict within the party. Public Reactions Aminu Danjuma believes celebrating internal fractures could worsen the party’s chances of recovery. “Courts have spoken, yes. But celebrating the cracks inside the party is dangerous. If we remain divided, we cannot rescue anything politically. It is time for the party to close ranks.” Taiwo Adewusi argues that Wike’s long political career reflects unusual consistency. “You may like him or not, but Wike has been consistent in politics since 1999. Many politicians moved from party to party, but he largely stayed within the same political family.” Okezi Agbada believes younger politicians should study Wike’s approach to strategy. “The way Wike plans his moves and executes them is something younger politicians should study. His political strategy is very deliberate.” Benedict Nkwocha doubts that a Supreme Court appeal would significantly change the political outcome. “Even if the case goes to the Supreme Court, I am not sure the outcome will be very different. Courts have often said internal party matters should be resolved internally.” Nonso Onyenakazi believes the crisis is forcing the party to confront problems it ignored for years. “Ironically, Wike may be weakening the PDP while at the same time forcing it to face problems it refused to solve for years.” The Question Hanging Over 2027 Back at his kiosk in Wuse, Musa Sani folds one of the unused posters and places it back inside the carton. For years, the red, white and green umbrella symbolised one of Nigeria’s most powerful political structures. Now its future feels uncertain. If the trajectory of the past year reflects the strategy Governor Seyi Makinde described; that Nyesom Wike intended to hold the PDP down, then many observers believe that objective may already have been largely achieved. The party’s decline may not come suddenly. It may arrive quietly. Through the slow passage of time. For supporters like Musa Sani, the PDP’s crisis is no longer just a debate among politicians in Abuja. It is something visible in small everyday moments, in the quiet absence of the enthusiasm that once surrounded the party.